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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

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The Netherlands online gambling market has been the subject of many column inches and much speculation thanks to regulation that has been largely described as heavy-handed and perhaps a little short-sighted – even by the country’s own regulator.

The triumvirate of Netherlands, Germany and Sweden is often held up as an example of how not to regulate, with all three countries haemorrhaging players to waiting illegal operators. So what is public sentiment like towards operators? “My feeling is that if you look at public sentiment, they don’t see really the difference between online and land-based,” says Petra. “If you look into what they’re saying, they’re primarily talking online. But for the general public, there is no difference [between the channels] in that respect.”

She believes the sentiment towards gambling among the Dutch public is comparable to the UK, Finland, Germany, France. “So, very tense,” she says.

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Notably, ethics concerns may have played a critical factor in the rejection of the bill. Lawmakers from both sides did not feel that an updated version of the text released on Sunday went far enough in addressing concerns related to senior officials maintaining or endorsing crypto business ties. However, a group of Republicans claimed they made a series of concessions when US President Donald Trump agreed to modifications on Sunday night that contained stronger ethics measures, the Associated Press reported. The 11th hour concessions were not enough to appease potential swing voters among Senate Democrats.

“This legislation failed squarely because Republicans refuse to say no to the president,” Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego said in a statement. “It takes 60 votes to pass a bill, and instead of spending their time twisting themselves into knots to appease President Trump, Republicans should have worked more closely with Senate Democrats to craft a bill that could pass with strong ethics provisions.”

Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, the leading negotiator for Republicans, berated her Democratic colleagues in a statement, saying they “played games” and “were never truly serious about protecting consumers”.