Crazy Bananas

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Japan’s gambling landscape has remained an enigma. It began as a seismic opportunity sought after by international casino giants following the enactment of its Integrated Resort Implementation Law in 2018, but as progress slowed potential bidders withdrew, and MGM Osaka emerged as the only new kid on the IR block, with a launch date of 2030.

Now, with Japan promising to open two more IR licences in 2027, ambitious bidders are craning their necks for a leg up over the competition. But Japan has telegraphed mixed messaging on the casino industry.

Depsite it having liberalised gambling in pursuit of the economic benefits that casinos can bring, its regulatory architecture and deeply ingrained social attitudes are not particuarly pro gambling.

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Lawmakers and regulators in Cyrpus have been debating methods to prevent recipients of the Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) from using state welfare payments for gambling. 

The GMI, know locally as EEE, is described as a “residual payment to guarantee and legal minimum income for all residents”.

Anyone residing in Cyprus, with income not high enough to support their basic needs, is eligible for the benefit.

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One answer is that the industry is no longer being valued primarily on the promise of endless growth. The market instead wants to see profit, cash generation and manageable regulation maintained across all facets of a listed business. Ed Birkin, managing director of H2 Gambling Capital, says the longer-term decline in gambling stocks runs much deeper than just changes to earnings forecasts.

“The industry share price declines have been much more severe than the cut to earnings projections which means that, while there may be some weakening in some companies’ fundamental growth drivers, the valuations that investors are putting on them have been the main driver of share price declines – although weaker fundamentals lead to lower valuations, so the reality is that they’re completely intertwined.”

Entain’s demotion comes after another – and arguably more significant – symbolic move by Flutter Entertainment. Flutter began trading on the New York Stock Exchange in January 2024 and later moved its primary listing from London to New York.